The African Optics

Some of Abiy Ahmed’s political decisions and practical measures in the early days, weeks, and months of his time in office as prime minister inspired millions of Ethiopians to hope for their country’s future. His decision to release thousands of people who were jailed for political reasons and allow tens of thousands who fled their country due to politically motivated persecution to return home earned him big respect. Many thought the right political atmosphere to exercise their freedom of speech and do business peacefully was created.

But the hopes did not mean that there have been no problems from the get go. In parallel with the hopes, there has been also a fear that the country may go back to where it was decades ago.

Under Abiy Ahmed’s watch, millions have been displaced and hundreds have been killed due to ethnic-based conflicts in Amhara, Oromia, and the Nations and Nationalities’ regions. High military officers and government officials were killed in Addis Ababa and Bahirdar respectively. Simegnew Bekele, a man who was in charge of the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, was murdered. Lately, the country is being churned by the assassination of Hachalu Hundessa, a popular Oromo singer and activist.

The biggest challenge to stability in Ethiopia and beyond may come from the ongoing conflict between the federal government and Tigray, a small but strong federal state. Among other things, the issue of national elections is a bone of contention between Abiy Ahmed’s government and the Tigray Liberation Front (TPLF) which is the ruling party of Tigray. TPLF had a major role both in overthrowing the Dergue regime of Mengistu Hailemariam and ruling the country thereafter for 27 years.

Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party had said it would hold elections per the schedule outlined by the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE). It changed its mind following NEBE’s announcement which said it will not be able to hold elections while the country is under the state of emergency due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, many political observers believe that the Prosperity Party had wanted to postpone the elections, although it kept saying otherwise, regardless of NEBE’s announcement as it did not have confidence of winning the elections in many parts of the country especially Oromia, the largest regional state in the country.

TPLF and almost all opposition political parties were open to the idea of postponing the election but differed with the government on how to do so without violating the constitutional provision that rigidly limits government’s term of office to five years. They sought to find a way to work around the Constitution and reach agreement by engaging in honest negotiations among all stakeholders.

However, the government was adamant saying the Constitution allows for amendment to postpone the election. Against all the opposition, it sent a draft resolution to the parliament. And as expected, the lawmakers ratified it to extend the power of the incumbent government indefinitely with an overwhelming majority.

Despite the decision by the parliament, Tigray regional government insisted on its plan to hold the elections in a month. It formed regional election commission which overseas the elections. A few days ago, the Election Commission announced that it started registering political parties and private candidates who want to run for office.

Tigray government’s insistence on conducting the elections become a headache for Abiy Ahmed. On the one hand, allowing TPLF to conduct the elections by defying a decision by the country’s parliament will make him appear a weak leader who cannot uphold the law. On the other hand, trying to stop them by using force will risk an all out war that may destabilize the whole region of the Horn of Africa.

There have been salvos of threats thrown against TPLF from government officials and some opposition parties particularly the National Movement of Amhara and Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice. Some private media are also asking the government to put economic sanctions on Tigray if it goes ahead with the plan.

Abiy Ahmed himself used many of his public speeches to discourage TPLF from holding elections with an implicit threat to take actions. The House of Federation also wrote an official letter to the government of Tigray Region asking it to stop holding the elections or face “legal” consequences.

Tigray is now the first region in Ethiopia which is not ruled by a party that leads the federal government in the modern history of the country. This gave TPLF the chance to strengthen its power to challenge the central government. Sources indicate that it’s using many retired military officers who had experience in fighting both conventional and gorilla wars and former intelligence people to recruit and train militias and special police force comparable to Ethiopian military.

Now the question is: Will Abiy allow Tigray to hold elections and take the risk of appearing a weak leader, or will he use force to stop it but risk an all out war that he may not control how it ends?

Two years ago, Abiy Ahmed, the Ethiopian prime minster, was not where he is today. In a country that has been divided along ethnic, political, and religious fault-lines, he miraculously received the support of overwhelming majority of Ethiopians.

The world leaders didn’t take time to heep praises on Abiy. They gave him the money he badly needed to pay salaries. Some cancelled foreign debts the country owes, and others postponed them.

The reason behind the unconditional support for Prime Minster Abiy Ahmed was the hope that he would transform the country that has known nothing in history but dictatorship, civil war, and poverty into democracy. The hope, in Ethiopia and around the world alike, was that he would turn around the country that was on the verge of collapse and write a new chapter. The expectation was too high.

However, the hopes the world placed on Abiy two years ago do not exist today. Arbitrary arrests, killings, and disappearances of political leaders and journalists are common practices. Government’s unconstitutional postponement of the national elections under the pretext of COVID-19 pandemic dashed the hopes of Ethiopians who expected a real change.

Opposition parties and even many in his own political party suspect Abiy of trying to reincarnate the old feudal system that defines Ethiopian history, the system that prompted the student movement of the 1960s and rebel movements thereafter which succeeded in overthrowing the governments of King Hailesillasie and Mengistu Hailemariam respectively.

Abiy Ahmed’s biggest sin is not only that he admires past kings who embody all kinds of injustices. To many people’s surprise, he erected statues for them at the National Palace. Abiy Ahmed’s opponents also accuse him of promoting anti-multinational federal narratives in his speeches. More than once, he openly condemned the very nationalism that brought him to power.

Abiy is now facing the fiercest opposition in Oromia, the biggest federal state in the country. The protests that has erupted in Oromia and Addis Ababa following the assassination of Haacaaluu Hindeessaa, a singer and activist, has widened the crack between his government and the people. The protesters are pointing their fingers at the government for the killing of the singer who inspired millions of people in Ethiopia.

The protests are weakening the already weak economy. The prices of food items in Addis Ababa and other major cities have more than doubled following the “stay-home” and “market boycott” campaigns by the Qeerroos, the young people in Oromia. Fuel depots and storages are critically low.

Abiy has tried all his best to control the ever growing protests against his government. The country is already under state of emergency due to COVID-19. He deployed all security apparatuses including the military, federal and local police, and militias. But all these don’t seem to control the situation!

Eritrea seceded from Ethiopia 29 years ago after it fought a long and bloody war of independence for three decades. The war which ended with a victory over the military junta of Mengistu Hailemariam not only paved the way for Eritrea’s independence, it also significantly shaped the political landscape of Ethiopia. The Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) along with the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and other ethnic-based rebel groups restructured the country into a multinational federal system ending a more than a century-old unitary government system of modern Ethiopia.

However, Eritrea’s independence didn’t end the problem it had with Ethiopia. The two countries fought another bloody border war which led to the death of an estimated hundred thousand troops and displacement of even more people from both sides. Since then, both countries remained in a no-war, no-peace situation for almost two decades but engaged in a proxy war by hosting and supporting different rebel groups against each other.

The new peace agreement

In 2018, Prime Minster Abiy Ahmed announced Ethiopia’s unconditional acceptance of the Algiers Peace Agreement signed in 2000. Eritrea, which turned down countless number of similar calls by the TPLF-led government, accepted Abiy’s overtures. Within a few months, the leaders of the two countries signed a “peace agreement” which officially put to rest one of the most devastating war in the world.

However, the peace agreement signed fell short of of many expectations. Isayas Afwerki’s grudge against the his old foe, the Tigray Liberation Front (TPLF), remained the same. His first visit to Ethiopia in 2018 was accompanied by his “game over” rhetoric, suggesting TPLF’s influence in Ethiopian politics came to an end. He visited many parts of Ethiopia, but not Tigray. The land borders between the two countries were closed just weeks after they were opened dashing the hope that people’s of the two countries will engage in border trade.

Eritrea’s interference in Ethiopian political affairs

In 2015, he told Messay Mekonnen and Fasil Yenealem of ESAT that he did not like the ethnic-federalism in Ethiopia and accused TPLF for doing otherwise. Lencho Leta also confirmed to OMN that Isayas wanted a unitary Ethiopia but TPLF and his then party, OLF, refused to follow his advise. In February of this year, Yemane Gebre-Meskel, the Minster of the Eritrean Ministry of Information, suggested the “eradication” the ethnic-based federal system.

Eritrean leaders’ statements about Ethiopian politics has received different reactions in Ethiopia. Some, especially the Amharas heaped praises on them as the idea resonate with with their political beliefs. Some of them even went as far as considering Isaias as “a true friend of Ethiopia.” They called on President Isayas to help Ethiopia in eradicating TPLF. Sisay Agena of ESAT openly suggested Eritrean intervention to punish TPLF claiming the latter is the enemy of both Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Isayas visited Amhara region in 2018 before Tigray. Amhara is the fist and the only region in Ethiopia whose leaders paired official visit to Asmara representing their region. The leaders of the region even suggested its regional soccer team play “a friendly game” with Eritrean national soccer team. This was understood by many as Isayas Afewerki’s attempt to wedge a division between the Amhara and Tigray regions.

Many pro-multinational federation forces described statements by Eritrean officials as uncalled for interference in the internal affairs of Ethiopia. TPLF officials characterized it as a “blatant interference” and demanded Prime Minster Abiy Ahmed to condemn and seek explanation from Eritrean officials.

Like Tigray politicians, Oromo activists and politicians were not happy about statements coming from Eritrea. In February, 48 Oromo scholars wrote an open letter warning Isayas Afewerki stay away from Ethiopian politics. Jawar Mohamed, gave a stinging response to what he conceived as Eritrea’s interference in the internal affairs of Ethiopia. said “For the sake of maintaining and further strengthening the peace effort between our two countries. Eritrean officials should refrain from meddling with Ethiopia’s internal debates. It is unwelcome and unhelpful.”

TPLF: Abiy Ahmed’s and Isayas Afewerki’s “common enemy”

Eritrea has a longtime national interest in Ethiopia. Its leaders understand that without amicable relation with its big neighbor, their country’s security and economy will always be at risk. From the no-war, no-peace situation that existed between the two countries for two decades, they learned that their dream to become “Africa’s Singapore” was aborted.

Eritrea consider TPLF and its ethnic-based political ideology as obstacle to any Eritrea’s long lasting deal with Ethiopia. So, they have decided to “eradicate” it by hook or crook.

Similarly Abiy Ahmed sees TPLF as a major threat not only to his power but also to what many believe his “vision of creating a unitary” political system in Ethiopia.

So, no wonder Abiy and Isayas visit each other’s country frequently even at a time when world leaders stopped traveling abroad due the COVID-19 pandemic. Also no surprise that Abiy Ahmed becomes the first foreign leader to visit Sawa, a secretive military training center in Eritrea.

Fear of a looming war

TPLF, the ruling party of the state of Tigray, has announced its plan to hold local election defying the decision by the country’s parliament to indefinitely postpone it owing to the COVID-19 pandemic. This leaves the government of Abiy with two bad options: let it go, or use force to stop it.

For Abiy allowing TPLF to conduct election will make him appear politically a weak leader. On the other hand, using a force will risk an all out war with one of the strongest federal states in the country at a time he’s struggling to contain protests in Oromia and Addis Ababa following the assassination of artist Hachalu Hundessa, an Oromo superstar.

However, Abiy may be pushed to use power by the Amharas who have border issues with Tigray. He may also urged by the right-wing political parties such as the Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice and the National Movement of Amhara who blame TPLF for “imposing” ethnic federalism, which they consider the “mother of all problems.”

TPLF officials say Tigray is encircled by three “enemies” referring to Eritrea, Amhara region, and the federal government which they believe is influenced by the right-wing unitary forces.

For better or worse, Eritrea has influenced Ethiopian politics for more than half a century. The 1961-1991 war against the Ethiopian government not only led to its independence, it also paved the way for EPRDF to change the Ethiopian political landscape. The 1998-2000 border war with the TPLF-led Ethiopia left an irreparable rift between EPLF and TPLF. Will it go for a third war, this time against a state within Ethiopia? If so, what impact will it have?

Today, I had a telephone conversation with one of my long-time Tegaru friend who lives in one of the cities in Oromia. The city I’m talking about is not Finfinnee.

After conversing on some social aspects of our friendship we went straight to politics. We talked about the ongoing change in the country. From our conversation, I understood that we have similar opinion on a lot of things regarding the ongoing change in the country although we had some differences on some issues. But as any Tegaru, he didn’t hide his concern about what he described “propaganda that does not differentiate between TPLF and the people of Tigray.” He has a point!

My friend told me about what he observed in Mekelle when he visited his family a few weeks ago. He said one of the happiest city now turned into hell: security is tense; prices of basic goods are high; the people, especially the youth, feel they are being spied on by security agents and fear that they could be arrested anytime for any reason. He told me about cases of many people who disappeared. He suspects that those people were most likely detained in unknown locations inside Tigray. The reason: TPLF fears that they may organize protests against it. 

Upon his return from Tigray to the city in Oromia, my friend took two of his younger brothers with him. What surprised me the most is the reason of his decision: “Tigrayans feel safe in any part of the country than in Tigray.” Very sad! Only few days ago TPLF people were boasting on TV saying Tigray is the most “democratic” and “peaceful” place.

I couldn’t control my tears when my friend told me that he hired someone to teach his brothers Afaan Oromo. One region is better than other region even in the same country!

P.S. I asked my friend if I could write about our conversation without mentioning his name. He gave me his consent saying he wanted more people to know what Tigrayans are going through.